Housing Land Availability Statement at 1st April 2005 : Executive on 12/07/2005

Waverley Borough Council Committee System - Committee Document

Meeting of the Executive held on 12/07/2005
Housing Land Availability Statement at 1st April 2005

ANNEXE 1

WAVERLEY BOROUGH COUNCIL

HOUSING LAND AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
AT 1ST APRIL 2005

Contents Page

Introduction 2

Waverley Borough’s Housing Requirements 2

The Land Supply Calculation 3

Phasing of Housing Development 3

Appendix 1 4
Estimated supply of dwellings 2005 – 2010

Appendix 2 8
Calculating the annual housing requirement needed to meet
the overall Plan total

Annexe 1 9
Schedule of Medium sites with planning permission

Annexe 2 10
Schedule of Large sites with planning permission

Introduction

1. This Housing Land Availability Statement (HLAS) is the latest in a series of annual reports on Waverley’s housing land supply. The purpose of this HLAS is to assess the provision of new housing in Waverley relative to the Borough’s housing requirement. This HLAS sets out the land supply position as at 1st April 2005.

Waverley Borough’s Housing Requirements

2. The HLAS assesses Waverley’s land supply relative to its housing allocation in the adopted Surrey Structure Plan 2004. Structure Plan Policy LO6 sets out the housing allocation for each district. The allocation for Waverley requires that 2,810 net new be provided in the period from 1st April 2001 to 31st March 2016.

3. The Waverley Borough Local Plan 2002 (adopted on 23rd April 2002) contains Policy H2 (Monitoring and Phasing of Housing Development), which commits the Council to ensuring that there is a five-year land supply relative to the Structure Plan allocation. If there is sufficient over-supply, the Council can withhold large sites of an open nature until such time as they are needed to meet housing requirements.

POLICY H2 MONITORING AND PHASING OF HOUSING DEVELOPMENT

The supply of housing land will be monitored to ensure the availability of a five-year supply relative to the Structure Plan allocation.

In order to safeguard a supply of land in the longer term the development of large ‘windfall’ sites of a predominantly open nature may be refused on the grounds of prematurity where the five-year supply of housing land is exceeded by more than 20%. Where a development is otherwise acceptable, an exception may be made if it results in a significant environmental or community benefit.

4. Waverley Borough Council will address its housing allocation to 2016 as part of a new ‘Local Development Framework’ (LDF), which will replace the existing Local Plan. As part of this exercise a ‘study of housing potential’ (urban capacity study) is being carried out. Until that work is complete, this HLAS sets out the best possible estimate of future land supply.

The Land Supply Calculation

5. To demonstrate whether or not the Council exceeds or falls short of a 5-year land supply, the following formula is used:

Land supply =

No. of dwellings expected to be built over the next five years

Annual housing requirement needed to meet the residual allocation

Number of dwellings expected to be built over the next five years

(see Appendix 1)

= 1,537

Annual housing requirement needed to meet the Plan total

(see Appendix 2)

= 180

Land supply = 1,537180

Land supply = 8.5 years

Phasing of housing development

6. In the event that the five-year supply of housing is exceeded by more than 20% (i.e. if there is a six-year supply or more), then the Local Plan Policy H2 enables the Council to withhold development of ‘open’ sites of 0.4 hectares or larger in order to secure a continuing supply of housing land in the longer term. The Council has previously applied this policy when the housing allocations for the Borough were those contained in the 1994 Structure Plan. However, circumstances changed when the new housing allocations (now contained in the 2004 Surrey Structure Plan) were adopted.

7. The last Housing Land Availability Statement, which set out the situation as at April 2004, identified that the land supply at that time was 5.8 years, which is below the threshold at which Policy H2 would take effect. Circumstances have now changed again. This HLAS indicates that the current land supply is 8.5 years. This clearly exceeds the five years plus 20% threshold that triggers the application of Policy H2. In the circumstances, it is intended that Policy H2 will again be applied to any qualifying sites. Prior to this, the matter is being reported to the Council’s Executive to agree the date after which the policy will again be applied.

Appendix 1

Estimating the number of dwellings that will be built over the five-year period from 1st April 2005 to 31st March 2010

Different site categories

This HLAS estimates the supply of housing land between 1st April 2005 and 31st March 2010 from three categories of site: small, medium and large.

Small sites – those with net capacity of 1-9 dwellings, regardless of site area.

Medium sites – those smaller that 0.4ha with a net capacity of 10 or more dwellings.

Large sites – those of 0.4ha or larger with a net capacity of 10 or more dwellings.

Historically Waverley Borough Council monitored its housing supply using small and large site categories with slightly different definitions. However, the definitions set out above are consistent with the Surrey Housing Capacity Study (SHCS) from which Waverley’s housing allocation was derived.

Medium sites are those small in area but large in terms of capacity, usually a result of flatted developments. This category of site was introduced into the SHCS to better reflect the effect of higher density development as a result of PPG3.

Large sites tend to come forward for development less consistently than small sites, and estimating future supply from trends is not a robust approach. This HLAS addresses the future supply from large sites with planning permission, and those identified in the Local Plan where development is likely within 5 years.

In addition, this HLAS has taken into account large sites where the Council has resolved to grant planning permission, but where the decision has not yet been issued because the approval is subject to the completion of a legal agreement. In particular, account has been taken in this HLAS of the resolution to grant outline permission for a development of 134 dwellings on part of the site formerly occupied by Farnham Hospital (reference WA/2004/1815); and the resolution to grant permission for the erection of 27 dwellings on land at Croft Nurseries, Hookley Lane, Elstead (reference WA04/1583).

Components of housing land supply in the HLAS

1. A trend-based estimate of future completions on small sites;
2. Medium sites with planning permission (including those where the development is only partially completed);
3. A trend-based estimate of the future supply of housing on medium sites;
4. Large sites with planning permission (including those where the development is only partially completed);
5. An estimate of future supply on large sites that are identified in the Waverley Borough Local Plan 2002 as having potential for housing development;
6. Large sites where a resolution to permit housing has been made, but where the planning permission has not yet been issued, because a Section 106 Agreement is required.

1. Small Sites
Small sites are those with a capacity of 1 to 9 dwellings (regardless of gross site area). A significant proportion of housing development in Waverley takes the form of infilling within the existing settlements, and other small-scale development.

In order to estimate future capacity on small sites, it is necessary to consider past completions data and establish the average net completions per annum for these sites. This can be used to predict future capacity on small sites. PPG3 states that trend based predictions such as this should discount past completions on Greenfield sites (unless they were on ‘Rural Exception Sites’).

On this basis, the small sites completions for the period 1997 – 2005 are:-

97/98	98/99	99/00	00/01	01/02	02/03	03/04	04/05	Total	Annual average
72	108	83	80	94	125	84	149	795	99

Using the eight-year average of 99 dwellings per annum, the anticipated supply from small sites between 01/04/05 and 31/03/10 = 99 x 5 = 495. It should be noted that the supply of housing on small sites has increased in recent years. Based on the above figures, the average supply from small sites for the four years from April 2001 to March 2005 was 113 dwellings per annum. This compares with an average of 86 dwellings per annum in the period from April 1997 to March 2001.

2. Medium sites with planning permission
A schedule of medium sites with planning permission as at 31/03/2005 is attached as Annexe 1. Some sites are already under construction. The table shows that there are 121 net additional dwellings still to be completed on medium sites with planning permission.

3. Estimate of Future Capacity on Medium Sites
Using the same process, an estimate can be made of future capacity on medium sites, based again on past trends. However, given that a separate record is made of medium sites that have planning permission, or that are under construction, it is necessary to ensure that there is no ‘double-counting’. The methodology used in the Surrey HLCS to assess future medium windfall sites was to use the trend-based approach but to apply this after two years (on the basis that permitted sites or sites under construction (see Annexe 1) are likely to be developed in this period). Again, it is necessary to disregard any ‘rural’ sites unless they are ‘Rural Exception Sites’.

On this basis, medium sites completions for the period 1997 – 2005 are:-

97/98	98/99	99/00	00/01	01/02	02/03	03/04	04/05	Total	Annual Average
20	15	12	7	36	2	77	20	189	24

Using the eight-year average of 24 dwellings per annum, the anticipated supply from these ‘windfall’ medium sites between 01/04/07 and 31/03/10 is 24 x 3 = 72

4. Large sites with planning permission
A schedule of large sites with planning permission as at 31/03/2005 is attached as Annexe 2. This shows that there are 407 net new dwellings still to be built on large sites with planning permission. It is estimated that all of these dwellings are likely to be built in the next 5 years.

5. Sites identified in the Waverley Borough Local Plan 2002
The Local Plan identifies the following sites which don’t yet have planning permission, but which are identified as having the potential to accommodate some residential development. An estimate has been made as to whether these sites are likely to be developed in whole or in part during the period up to March 2010.

East Street Area of Opportunity, Farnham – Proposed mixed-use development in town centre. Residential component currently estimated to be 294 gross (290 net). It is estimated that about 193 dwellings (two thirds) will be built in the next five years, with the remaining 97 being completed post 2010.

Godalming Key Site Phase 2 – It is estimated that there could be capacity in phase 2 of the development of this Key Site for about 30 net new dwellings. However, it is estimated that these will not be completed until after 2010.

Haslemere Key Site, Lower Street/West Street, Haslemere – This site is identified for mixed use. The estimated residential capacity is some 20 dwellings. However, it is estimated that these will not be completed until after 2010.

Land at Milford Hospital, Milford – This is identified in the Local Plan as a ‘Major Developed Site’ in the Green Belt. For the purpose of this document, the surplus land is estimated to have the potential to accommodate some 120 dwellings and that 50% (60 dwellings) could be completed in the next five years with the remaining 60 being completed post-2010.

Land at Bourne Mill, Farnham - This site is specifically allocated for residential development in the Local Plan. It was included on the recommendation of the Local Plan Inspector. Any residential development must be mainly for affordable housing. The estimated capacity is about 30 dwellings. It is anticipated that these dwellings will be completed within the next five years.

Based on these estimates, it is considered that this source of supply could deliver 283 net new dwellings in the next five years, with a further 207 in the period post-2010.

6. Large Sites With a Resolution to Grant Planning Permission
There are two large sites that are subject to planning applications where a resolution to grant planning permission has been made subject to the completion of a legal agreement. The details are :-
� WA/2004/1815 – Land at Farnham Hospital, Hale Road, Farnham. Resolution to grant outline planning permission for 134 net new dwellings;
� WA/2004/1583 – Land at Croft Nurseries, Hookley Lane, Elstead. Resolution to grant permission for 27 dwellings (25 net).

It is reasonable to assume that these sites (total 159 dwellings) will both be developed before 31st March 2010..

Summary table of housing supply April 2005 – March 2010

Estimated completions on windfall small sites 2005 – 2010 (5 x 99)

Estimated completions on medium sites with planning permission
2005 – 2010

Estimated completions on windfall medium sites 2005 – 2010 (3 x 24)

Estimated completions on large sites with planning permission
2005 – 2016

Estimated completions on Local Plan sites 2005 – 2010

Estimated completions on large sites with a resolution to grant
planning permission 2005 – 2010

Estimated TOTAL completions 2005 – 2010

495

121

72

407

283

159

1537

If, for any reason, none of the Local Plan sites were to be developed in the next five years, then the estimated supply over that period would be:

1537 – 283 = 1254.

The land supply would be : 1254 = 7 years
180

This demonstrates that even without the housing potential that exists on sites identified in the Local Plan, the land supply still exceeds 5 years + 20%.

Appendix 2

Calculating the annual housing requirement needed to meet the overall Plan total

The annual housing requirement is calculated by dividing the number of dwellings that remain to be built by the number of years remaining for the Plan period:

Net Dwellings Completions April 2001 – March 2005

	2001-2002	2002-2003	2003-2004	2004-2005	TOTALS
Small sites	101	128	88	166	483
Medium sites	36	2	77	20	135
Large sites	37	75	58	50	220
TOTALS	174	205	223	236	838

The number of private dwellings completed includes those on Waverley BC and National House Builders Council (NHBC) inspected sites.

Dwelling requirement 1st April 2005 – 31st March 2010

Surrey Structure Plan 2004 requirement for the period 2001 - 2016	2,810
Dwelling completions (01/04/2001 – 31/03/2005)	838
Residual Structure Plan requirement for period 01/04/2005 – 31/03/2016	1,972
Annual housing requirement for 11 years to 2016 (2000/11)	180
Dwelling requirement for the five-year period 01/04/2005 – 31/03/2010	900

ANNEX 1
SCHEDULE OF MEDIUM SITES (LESS THAN 0.4 HECTARES, AND 10 OR MORE DWELLINGS) WITH PLANNING PERMISSION AT 1st APRIL 2005

Plan App No.	Address	Site Area (Ha)	Dwellings Permitted Gross	Net Gain Market	Net Gain Affordable	Total Net Gain	Gross Completions	Net Completions	Net Outstanding Dwellings	No. Under Construction Gross	Not Started Gross	Comments
WA02/1073	Land at 'Four Walls', Wrecclesham Road, Farnham	0.373	13	13	0	13	0	0	13	0	13
WA03/2486	Castle House, Bear Lane, Farnham	0.044	12	12	0	12	0	0	12	0	12
WA03/2336	Land at Cyclists Touring Club, 69 Meadrow, Godalming	0.204	14	14	0	14	0	0	14	0	14
WA02/0671	Kings Road Garage, Haslemere	0.144	14	14	0	14	0	0	14	14	0
WA02/2009	Land between 34-38 Kings Road, Haslemere	0.17	14	14	0	14	0	0	14	14	0
WA03/1674	Land rear of 48 High Street, Haslemere	0.157	12	12	0	12	0	0	12	12	0
WA04/1596	Land at 1-3 The Hart, Farnham	0.209	32	29	0	29	0	0	29	0	32	Retirement homes
WA04/1720	Cedar Lodge, Chapel Lane, Milford	0.166	13	13	0	13	0	0	13	0	13
	TOTALS			121	0	121			121

ANNEX 2
SCHEDULE OF LARGE SITES (MORE THAN 0.4 HECTARES, AND 10 OR MORE DWELLINGS) WITH PLANNING PERMISSION AT 1st APRIL 2005

Plan App No.	Address	Site Area (Ha)	Dwellings Permitted Gross	Net Gain Market	Net Gain Affordable	Total Net Gain	Gross Completions	Net Completions	Net Outstanding Dwellings	No. Under Construction Gross	Not Started Gross	Comments
WA01/0612	Land at Bramley Grange Hotel, Bramley	0.576	21	21	*0	21	20	20	1	1	0	*6 units of affordable housing provided on adjacent site
WA02/1607	Land at Wrecclesham Road, Farnham	0.41	12	12	0	12	0	0	12	0	0
WA01/0167	Down House and More House Nursing Homes, Farnham	0.473	30	20	9	29	24	23	6	6	0
WA02/2359	Land Between Flambard Way Catteshall Lane and Woolsack Way (phase 1), Godalming	0.509	50	50	0	50	0	0	50	50	0
WA02/2310	Catteshall Mill, Catteshall Lane, Godalming	0.808	14	14	0	14	0	0	14	14	0
WA02/1009	Kilnfields, Haslemere	2.683	81	14	20	34	24	-23	57	57	0
WA04/0748	land at Reris Grange, Portsmouth Road, Milford	0.568	23	12	8	20	0	0	20	23	0
WA03/0046	Institute of Oceanographic Sciences, Brook Road, Wormley	1.92	70	49	21	70	0	0	70	70	0
WA04/0603	Land adjacent to Wyphurst Road, Cranleigh	2.2	79	0	79	79	0	0	79	75	4
WA02/1398	Godalming College, Godalming	1.967	49	29	20	49	0	0	49	0	49
WA03/2278	Wilton Nursing Home, Hindhead	0.606	27	20	7	27	0	0	27	27	0
WA04/2090	Land at 7A Wrecclesham Road, Farnham	0.655	23	15	7	22	0	0	22	23	0
	TOTALS			256	171				407

comms/executive/2005-06/064